The market gave us a lot to work with today, and I want to walk you through exactly what I did — and more importantly, why I did it.
What the Charts Are Telling Us
Let's start with the big picture. On the four-hour chart for QQQ, we still have an intact trading range, but something critical has shifted: we are now trading below the 200 moving average. That was a key support level, and losing it changes the conversation.
Our last line of defense? The major support line I've drawn in at $580. That's the level I'm watching closely.
But here's where it gets interesting — and why I didn't panic. We hit -2 mean reversion, and I'm seeing buy divergence forming. What does that look like? The price made a lower low, but mean reversion made a higher low. That's a signal I pay attention to. It doesn't guarantee a bottom, but it tells me things are starting to line up.
Tesla Broke Support — Here's What I Did
You all know I own a lot of Tesla. I'm long-term bullish. But the chart broke support today — $380 did not hold, and we closed below the 200 moving average. We're now testing old resistance (new support) around the $360 area.
And once again -2 mean reversion plus buy divergence. Multiple signals stacking up.
So I made a decision: it's time to start rolling some options.
The 30% Rule for Rolling Calls
Here's the framework. Let's say you own a 430 call. The question is: Can I roll it down, and does it meet my rule criteria?
My rule is simple:
I do not want to pay more than 30 cents on the dollar to roll a call.
If the spread is $10 wide, I'm not paying more than $3. When I checked this earlier today, the cost was actually below $3 — which tells me the criteria are met and it's time to move.
But rolling a call is only step one. What I did next with my Modified Synthetic Long positions is where the real portfolio management happens — and it's the difference between hoping the market cooperates and being prepared no matter what it does.
Want to see exactly how I adjusted my MSL hedges, the credit rules I used, and how I apply this across my entire portfolio?
Step Two: Adjusting the Modified Synthetic Long
Here's where we go deeper. Beyond rolling calls, I started adjusting my MSL hedges on Tesla today.
Let me break down what that looked like. Say I sold a December 2028 $400 put and bought a December 2028 $350 put. The credit on that trade was $25.
Here's the rule I follow:
No matter what the width of the spread, I want a 50% credit.
If the spread is $100 wide, I want a $50 credit. If it's $50 wide, I want a $25 credit. That's non-negotiable — it's how I keep risk defined and discipline intact.
When Tesla started hitting all those key supports near $360 — and I had -2 mean reversion stacking up — I made the decision to start peeling off the long side of my Modified Synthetic Long puts
Why I Only Peeled Off One-Tenth
This is important. I didn't unwind everything. I peeled off one-tenth of my MSL position.
So if I had 10 MSLs, I sold one and converted it to a standard Synthetic Long. My new scorecard looks like this:
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9 Modified Synthetic Longs
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1 Synthetic Long
That's it. Measured. Disciplined. I teach the full mechanics of this — the MSL versus the SL, when to convert, and how to manage the scorecard — in Courses 301 and 302. But many of you watching are already familiar with these structures, so I wanted to show you what I was doing in real time.
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Applying This Across the Entire Portfolio
This isn't a one-stock process. I go through this exact framework on every long-term position I hold — not short-term trades, but the two- and three-year positions.
Take NVIDIA as an example. Yes, we closed below the 200 moving average. But here's the difference — NVIDIA is still holding its key support level. I know the next support sits at $150, but as of today, that current support held.
So for NVIDIA, I'm asking the same question: Can I roll a call down for less than 30 cents on the dollar? If the chart says yes and the technicals confirm it, I'll make the move. But NVIDIA hasn't hit -2 mean reversion yet — so I'm not rolling there. Not yet, but soon.
The Signal Combination That Triggers My Adjustments
This is the takeaway I want you to walk away with. I don't adjust trades based on one signal. I wait for the combination:
- Key support level — Price reaches a major support line
- -2 mean reversion — We've stretched far enough from the mean on a 4-hr IADSS chart
- Buy divergence — Price makes a lower low, but the indicator makes a higher low
When 2 of those three things line up — like they did on Tesla today — that's when I make the decision to start adjusting, rolling, and banking profits. Not before.
Does this mean we found the exact bottom? No. But I've got a lot of factors stacking up saying we're getting close — and that's enough for me to act with discipline and start positioning.
I hope this was helpful. This is exactly the kind of real-time insight I share every week in Market Minutes — what I'm watching, what I'm doing, and the rules behind every decision.
Thank you for being here.