MM7 - NVDA MSL

I've been busy today. The first trade I want to walk you through is a modified synthetic long I just put on in Nvidia.

The 4-hour IADSS chart is telling me what I need to know: NVDA is trading between resistance and support, sitting right on the 200 moving average, and we just got a -1.8 mean reversion reading. For me, that's close enough, good enough — because I want to start building a larger position in Nvidia. I bought some back during the tariff tantrums in April, but not enough.

Now, could I just do a regular synthetic long here — sell a put, buy a call — and call it a day? Of course. But there's a reason I chose the modified version instead, and understanding that reason might be the most important thing you learn today.

A synthetic long gives you the same exact risk profile as owning stock. And right now? I am not convinced that Nvidia has found its bottom. I'm not even convinced the overall market has found a bottom.

Let me show you why the QQQ picture matters here. On the 12-hour IADSS chart, QQQ is sitting on support at $585–$600 with a double top resistance at $640. The daily 200 moving average is right there too. If this support doesn't hold on QQQ, Nvidia probably doesn't hold either. So I want a parachute — a way to drop my cost basis if things go south. That's exactly what the modified synthetic long gives me.

Here's the trade I built:

I looked for the call with roughly 50/50 intrinsic-extrinsic value, and then I paired it with an at-the-money put spread instead of a naked put.

• Buy the December 2028 $140 call (~$81)

• Sell the December 2028 $180 put

• Buy the December 2028 $150 put

• Combined credit from the put spread: $15

That $15 credit offsets my call cost, so my combined debit is $66 ($6,600 per contract).

Breakeven: $140 + $66 = $206. The stock is at $180 right now, and the all-time high is around $210. So when we break the all-time high, this trade is picking up point-for-point. The delta on my call is 81, plus I get positive delta from the put spread — I'm moving almost dollar-for-dollar with the stock on the upside.

Margin requirement: $30 (the width of my put spread: $180 – $150).

The floor: If everything goes wrong, $150 is my floor on the short put because it’s a put credit spread. The bleeding stops at $150.  The put spread risk is defined at $30 (width of the spread) and the Debit is $66 so my max risk is $96.  

And here's the real power — my Phase 2 plan: If the market moves against me, I'll take my $150 long put and roll it lower — say, sell the $150 put and buy the $140 put — bringing in maybe a $6 credit. I then use that credit to roll my $140 call down to $120 or $110.

This is my in-between strategy. It's what I use when I want to start dipping my toe in but not put my whole foot in. I'll deploy full synthetic longs when I'm convinced we're at the absolute bottom. We're not there yet — so this modified structure lets me participate in the upside while having a built-in repair plan for the downside.

If I make any Phase 2 adjustments, I'll share them with you and walk you through every step.