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MM60 - MSL Math

by Laura OG
Jul 21, 2026

I want to talk about another subject that keeps popping up, and that is people wanting to force synthetic longs and modified synthetic longs. Let's touch on what I am actually looking at when I say yes I like it, or no I do not. This is not financial advice. I am not a CPA and I am not a certified trading advisor.

Let's start with Marvell. I have had quite a few questions about this one, and I have had just as many on Astera Labs. Both of these have had huge, solid pullbacks, so it makes complete sense why people are saying this is it, this is the entry.

And honestly, the technicals look good. On Marvell we had a minus 2 mean reversion. It became a buy divergence, because even though we made a lower low in price, we made a higher low on mean reversion. We also had a nice 100 EMA retest with a buy signal on it. That is real confluence.

So why wouldn't I just dive in and start loading up modified synthetic longs?

Because when I actually ran the numbers on both of these, they failed my rules, and not by a little.

Let me show you exactly where the math breaks.

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