MM48 - IBIT LEAP and SpaceX Day 1

Hi everyone. I wanted to get this one out immediately, because this is a trade I just did, and I want you to see why I did it. Not financial advice. It is really important you understand that I am an educator, not a financial advisor and not a CPA. I am here to show you what I do, when I do it, and why I pull the trigger.

I am combining two concepts today, and both of them are price average concepts. The first is Bitcoin and the IBIT trade I just placed. The second is my plan for the SpaceX IPO tomorrow. Let's get going on Bitcoin first.

I pulled up an IBIT 12 hour IADSS chart for this one. I wanted the higher time frame so you get a better picture of what is going on. If you watched MM24, you saw me map out my Bitcoin entry scenarios on this same 12 hour chart. This is that roadmap playing out.

Here is the story the chart has been telling. We had old support that became new resistance. A lot of people asked me in that zone, are you buying IBIT? And I said no. I only buy when I have a mathematical edge. We were sitting right at resistance with the 200 moving average overhead, and that is not an edge. I said we either have to clear that resistance for me to be a buyer, or I need to be at critical support.

Guess what? We are at critical support. Double bottom. A nice retest. The confluence indicator at 100 percent. A 95 percent win rate read on the mean reversion. Could this lose? Of course it could. But I play the odds and I play the math.

So I pulled the trigger. And I want to show you the exact trade I chose, because the strike selection is where the math gets interesting. 

The Trade

I chose the IBIT December 2028 $30 call for roughly a $16 debit. Some fills were 15.80, some were 16.20, the numbers are the same. This is a LEAP, two years and seven months out. If LEAPS are still new to you, I cover buying calls and LEAPS in Course 101, and MM5 was my very first IBIT LEAP breakdown.

Why Not the $26 Call?